Embracing the Fourth Turning
Embracing the Fourth Turning
How Network States Can Outmaneuver the US Establishment
“The fourth turning is a crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.”
- William Strauss and Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning: An American Prophesy
The Fourth Turning is a time of challenge and change. Importantly, it is characterized by the founding of new institutions to replace those no longer effective at serving the people. One exciting new institution is the network state, a revolutionary way of using technology to make government work better for everyone. The network state seeks to solve the problem of limited self-government, giving people more power and more say in shaping their communities and their world.
“A network state is a highly aligned online community with a capacity for collective action that crowdfunds territory around the world and eventually gains diplomatic recognition from pre-existing states.”
- Balaji Srinivasan, The Network State
If network states are to have a chance at replacing existing U.S. institutions, they must outmaneuver the U.S. establishment. By analyzing establishment behavior across various societal mood shifts, we will determine if there are opportunities to do so. By understanding these mood shifts, network states can navigate this tumultuous time and lay the foundation for a new era of renewal, growth, and empowerment.
Social Priority
During the fourth turning, the social priority is to strengthen communities. After the era of maximum individualism in the previous turning, society must now recenter itself. However, the establishment appears stuck in the mindset of individualism, which has become out of balance. This has resulted in conflicts with friends, family members, and jobs due to differences in opinion, and in some communities being weakened instead of strengthened.
Healthy cultures thrive on healthy debate, so now is the time to prioritize building strong communities and fostering constructive discourse. Network states can play a critical role in this process by leveraging technology to connect people and foster collaboration, while also respecting individual rights and promoting community interests.
Gender Roles
Third turnings are when the gap between gender roles is minimal, resulting in a widening of those roles now that the fourth is well under way. Yet masculine and feminine energies are both being challenged. With the rise of new words and concepts, there is increasing confusion and separation around issues of gender and sexuality, while traditional gender roles are being questioned and redefined.
Despite these changes, the union of man and woman has endured throughout human history. While there are many paths to success in long-term relationships, it's worth considering the Lindy effect and the enduring power of this traditional union. By better understanding this cycle, network states can create systems which flow with humanity’s rhythms.
For network states, understanding the fourth turning and the changes it brings can be key to creating systems that work with humanity's rhythms and support healthy, sustainable relationships and communities.
Social Structures
In the fourth turning, social structures tend to come together, forming a unified framework to replace the old institutions that no longer serve the people after the crisis has passed. Unfortunately, the growing divide between red and blue in recent years has only widened, with the establishment seemingly repelling large segments of the population. This is where network states come in, focusing on attracting the types of people they need to build a strong foundation of infrastructure and capital. As these network states grow and thrive, we could see a scaling of unprecedented proportions, potentially marking the end of the crisis and the fourth turning. Think of it as a grand transformation, one that could unite a lion's share of humanity and create new possibilities for the future.
Children
While generation X was largely left to its own devices, millennials received a more balanced approach to child rearing. Because the fourth turning represents a societal crisis, parents are now trending towards overprotection of today’s children.
The establishment's policies towards children have been a cause for concern, with a variety of questionable actions. While wearing face masks to protect against disease initially seemed important, in hindsight it now seems overprotective. In contrast, policies that expose children to early sexualization and drag queen story hour are examples of underprotective measures that can be harmful. It's important for those responsible for the welfare of children to strike a balance between protecting them from harm and allowing them to grow and develop in a safe and healthy environment.
Networks states can seize the advantage by providing systems which are overprotective of children for the remainder of this crisis. However, overprotection can be reimagined. We should be creating powerful, confident, and independent children who can stand up for themselves.
As parents join network states, they have a unique opportunity to instill the values and principles of a network state into their children more easily than those who transition from the current system. Today's babies could be the first generation to grow up fully immersed in the network state, which raises the question: what kind of a society could a generation raised in a network state create?
It is critical network states work with families to provide what is necessary to make today’s children anti-fragile to tyranny, for they will be the prophets of the next fourth turning.
Path of Least Resistance
The Fourth Turning presents a compelling case for the cyclical nature of a society's moods. If true, it means we should not resist these swings but rather embrace them. Unfortunately, the American establishment appears to be fighting against these trends, expending energy unnecessarily, and hastening its own decline.
By contrast, network states should boldly embrace these shifts in order to provide society with what it needs to rebalance and move forward. Instead of fighting against the tide, network states can focus on investing their energies in building a better future.